EVERY PORTFOLIO TELLS A STORY
Conviction in Action
Every quarter, thousands of professional money managers publicly disclose exactly what they own and how much they own of it. Our system reads those filings and measures not just what institutions hold, but how much conviction they have — who's adding, who's exiting, and who's making outsized bets. We distill that behavioral data into a single score for each stock, ranked from strongest institutional conviction to weakest. These Conviction Composite Scores show consistent outperformance, with higher ranked Conviction stocks outperforming lower.
Click at top for the Conviction in Action page to see the interative display. This model is for public review. We produce other private models with different features, attributes and outcomes.
Do you want the data? We share. Drop us a line for the full data set. Conviction Scores available for Spring 2026 - just ask!
Our Journey
Innovation Beta launched to develop algorithms that identify investor conviction, which is crucial for achieving investment outperformance. Many academic studies highlight that the best ideas or strong conviction can lead to better investment results. Our journey began by applying machine learning techniques to investigate trading behaviors that might indicate a strong conviction. We explored numerous factors: Were the largest positions in a portfolio indicative? Did the most recent buys play a role? Was there an industry concentration or a high active share?
The possibilities were extensive, and we meticulously analyzed the data to find answers. Ultimately, we discovered a measurement that effectively captured the essence of conviction, signaling opportunities to overweight certain stocks. Conversely, low conviction scores indicated stocks to avoid. Initially, our plan was to create a conviction-themed suite of indices and ETFs. Instead, we found success with our highly searchable database, which provides valuable data for quants, financial executives, public and investor relations professionals, and journalists.
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Powered by Innovation Beta
Welcome. @PortfolioStory is my place to share interesting tales about stocks and investing, utilizing genuine trades from experienced investors. Just like fingerprints at a crime scene, stock trading and portfolio construction reveal an investor’s thinking in a rapidly changing world. While no investor possesses the perfect crystal ball, changes in stock ownership can provide clues about future trends, contributing to potential investment outperformance.
Conviction Scores are not investment advice, but readers may discover valuable insights into trading behaviors, as we believe that 'Every Portfolio Tells A Story.'
Our most recent content can be found on X and LinkedIn before this site. Follow on X (Twitter) @PortfolioStory https://x.com/PortfolioStory LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tsgalbraith/